It has undoubtedly been an eventful four years in office for the Modi
government. Compared to an UPA government that was accused of ’policy
paralysis’, this one has been decisive from the word go, perhaps even to
a fault. It has introduced major reforms, some of which have been hit
by indifferent execution. As for the successes, auctions were introduced
for coal and spectrum sales, as against the arbitrary, non-transparent
approach to allocating these resources during the UPA years. India’s
ranking in the World Bank’s ease of doing business moved up 30 places to
100 last year (the report was released in November 2017), without
taking GST into account. What worked for the country’s ranking in
particular was the introduction of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code as
a step to free up stranded capital. Procedures with respect to starting
a business, obtaining construction permits and protecting minority
investors were simplified. The introduction of GST last July crunched a
plethora of State and Central rates and levies into just a clutch of
rates. While GST is not free of implementation issues, all stakeholders
stand to gain from a fair, transparent tax system that pulls a larger
share of the economy into the formal sector. The Centre has also taken
steps to transform the energy and transport space. There has been a
perceptible rise in the share of solar power in installed capacity. The
move to phase out the manufacture of conventional vehicles by 2040 and
shift to electric ones is laudable. While the Centre has been accused of
not attending to farm distress, its crop insurance cover and price
support to pulses can make a difference over time.
However, at
least two of its initiatives were controversial. The demonetisation of
86 per cent of the currency in circulation as on November 2016 put
ordinary citizens to hardship, without demonstrably achieving its stated
objectives of wiping out black money and bringing about a shift from
cash to digital transactions. While bringing more people into the tax
net, DeMo hurt small producers. The promotion of JAM — Aadhaar along
with Jan Dhan accounts and mobile phones — may have been beneficial in
targeting welfare transfers, but the blanket promotion of Aadhaar has
raised concerns over both exclusion and data security. Its Digital India
push has yet to be dovetailed with health and education outcomes. The
Modi government’s moves need to be better thought through. It is yet to
show tangible gains in its Make in India plan, even as a flood of cheap
imports make jobs scarce. Investment remains stuck at multi-year lows.
Above
all, there is a creeping sense of government breathing down the necks
of business — contrary to its initial slogan of ’minimum government,
maximum governance’. In the socio-political realm, freedoms and
liberties are seen to be under threat. Such misgivings have strengthened
over time.