After the stupendous rise witnessed last year,
Indian equity markets have gone up only 1.6 per cent in the first five
months of 2018. Manish Gunwani, Chief Investment Officer — Equity,
Reliance Mutual Fund, believes that the current phase is just a
normalisation of valuation rather than a change in the long- term
fundamentals. He is optimistic on earnings and positive on large cap
companies. Excerpts:
How do you see Indian equity markets moving for the rest of the year?
The market movement this year has to be seen in the context of the healthy returns last year.
There
are macro-level challenges currently, especially due to oil prices. But
the general expectation is that oil is unlikely to go up consistently
and hence its impact is unlikely to worsen. We believe the current phase
is the normalisation of valuation rather than a change in long- term
fundamentals.
What do you prefer — large caps or mid/small caps?
Midcap valuations are still stiff. Wherever there is flexibility we have preferred large caps due to better valuations.
Which are your favourite sectors?
From a valuation basis combined with long-term growth potential, we like big corporate lending banks, insurance and pharma.
We are underweight on FMCG due to high valuations.
Your views on the current earnings season...
The
current earnings season has been fairly healthy except for corporate
lending banks. Corporates exposed to the rural segment have posted good
results and the outlook is also positive. The retail lending and
consumer discretionary segments continue to do well.
Do you think FY19 will be a better year than FY18?
We
expect FY19 to be better for earnings as the drag of GST will not be
there, global growth remains reasonably healthy, election-related
spending will aid consumption and the base for domestic cyclical sectors
is favourable as the capex cycle has still not gathered momentum
(though it seems to have bottomed out).
Given
the rise in commodity prices, especially crude oil, how will margins
look in FY19? Which sectors do you think will be able to pass on the
cost hikes and which ones will be forced to absorb them?
The
rise in commodities will put pressure on margins. But if the economy is
in recovery mode, the operating leverage through better top-line growth
should help mitigate this. Branded segments like FMCG, consumer
discretionary and so on should be able to pass this on better than
sectors like aviation and cement.
What is your view on the performance of PSU or corporate-focussed banks in the new fiscal year?
Corporate
lending banks are expected to have a tough phase in terms of earnings
for the next few quarters due to high provisioning requirements. But the
large ones among them are at attractive valuations from a long-term
perspective.